My mom lives in Bradenton, it seems like it is headed to hit further south near Fort Myers now but you never know with these things. As you say the water is the main concern, a storm swell would flood my Mom's house and she lives 20 minutes from the beach. It's always a scary time. According to my Mom there is an ancient Native American spell that protects the area (she heard this once, but if you look it up there is some anectodal story I think!). I hope it doesn't hit too bad wherever it lands, wish you all the best for your family and property. 🙏